Sanjay Prasad Paudel
Unfortunately, ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) has split into two factions, betraying the aspirations of the people who voted it to power with near two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives (HoR). When Prime Minister KP Oli dissolved the HoR on Poush 5, Nepali politics was unexpectedly thrust into uncharted waters. Many critics have described Oli’s move as political regression that undermines Nepalis’ aspirations for stability and prosperity.
The NCP had won around two-thirds seats in the HoR in the 2017 general elections. This electoral success can be matched with similar feat of Nepali Congress that mustered two-thirds majority in elections held in 1959. In early 1990s prime minister Manamohan Adhikari, who led a minority government, dissolved the parliament after the NC tabled no confidence motion against him. The Supreme Court reinstated the parliament, arguing that if there were any alternative to make new government, the parliament couldn’t be dissolved. The SC verdict is still taken as a constitutional precedent when it comes to the restoration of disbanded House.
Erstwhile CPN-UML under the chairmanship of late Adhikari had bagged 88 seats out of 205 in the mid-term elections in 1994. With the fall of Adhikari-led UML’s minority government, the country plunged into instability. Coalition governments were formed and toppled one after another, creating ground for the rise of Maoist insurgency. After king Gyanedra usurped power in a bloodless coup, the Maoists and the then seven party alliance of parliamentary parties inked a 12-point deal. Nepali Congress president late Girija Prasad Koirala and former UML General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal played an important role in bringing the Maoist rebels into the mainstream of national politics. GP Koirala had regained his lost image with his role in the peace process.
Missed opportunity
The then UML missed the opportunity to cash in on its hard work it in making peace process successful. However, the CPN-Maoist swept the elections to the first Constituent Assembly (CA) in 2008, sinking both NC and UML in the poll landslide. Nonetheless, the first CA could not draft the much-awaited constitution. The second CA polls held in 2013 finally promulgated the historic constitution in 2015 despite the protest from different regional and ethnic groups including Madhes-based parties that claimed that the new charter failed to address their concerns. India had pressed Nepal’s mainstream forces to incorporate the demands of Madhes-based parties. It sent foreign secretary S. Jaishankar to Nepal to delay the promulgation of new constitution but Nepali leaders turned down his meddlesome move.
Nepal issued the new constitution defying undue pressure from India. India considers that it has a share in Nepali politics for its role in Janaandolan II. Stung by Nepal’s assertive approach, India did not welcome the new constitution of Nepal and kept it just in diplomatic note. It moved to impose economy blockade on Nepal. It was fourth time the southern neighbour enforced embargo in Nepal. KP Oli led the country in defying the blockade and won the polls held on the planks of nationalism. The CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist Centre forged electoral alliance ahead of provincial and federal polls in 2017. It secured nearly two-third majority, enabling to form the strongest government in decades.
Nepal-India ties soured with the issuance of new maps by the both sides. Nepal published the new map incorporating Lipulek, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura in the far-west. This took the ties between Nepal and India to the lowest ebb. For a long time, their diplomacy became deadlock. Then, both sides took initiatives to normalize relations. Indian PM sent RAW chief Samant Kumar Goel to Nepal. He held secret meeting with PM Oli at midnight. Their meeting caused uproar within the ruling party for lack of transparency. Conspiracy theory is that India gave a green signal to Oli to dissolve the parliament. Then Goel’s visit was followed by the trip of Indian army chief MM Narvane and foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla. The visit of Indian diplomats and security heads in succession implied that relations between Nepal and India also returned to normal.
Hazy path
Meanwhile, internal conflict within the NCP also reflected the geopolitical shades. While the NCP split and House dissolution made India happy, China became the biggest loser. With the powerful communist government in Nepal, China expected that the former will see stability and joint infrastructure projects will be implemented smoothly. NCP and Chinese Communist Party (CPC) have fraternal ties and the NCP division has certainly the hurt the later. The CPC sent a delegation to Kathmandu to inquire about the sudden political development and possibility of saving the unity of NCP. It is widely speculated that PM Oli tilted to India after China favoured unity in the NCP at the cost of his resignation. But Oli felt humiliated by Chinese suggestion and turn to India for the protection of his government. The country’s politics is heading on a hazy path. The much-awaited verdict of Supreme Court will take the country to another direction that may be also contested and not satisfy everyone.
(Author, who did his Masters in Management and MPhil in Englsih, writes on social and political issue.)
